This IS NOT a short article, however if you want to know what happened on November 3rd you will read the complete article. We do not spread rumors or speculate. We deal in facts we can defend and provide ways to independently corroborate what we say.
Opening
I want to thank those who have helped me and/or the Constitutional Alliance. My gratitude is everlasting. To those who did not help I have no ill will. There are many ways for people to help besides just funding. People can share what the Constitutional Alliance publishes. People can and have given us a voice on TV and radio airwaves. I understand when some people tell us they need to pray about what they are being asked to do. We are right there with you praying for you and our country. We pray for all people because the global system of financial control we are steamrolling towards is fast approaching. I've had people call and email me asking me if there is anything that I need or the Constitutional Alliance needs. There is always a need, however if the needs of people are such that they cannot give, we understand.
Leading up to the midterm election(s)
If someone did not take the time to read what I wrote months ago that is not on me. 2028 will depend on how President Trump's supporters and conservatives in general react to the election results going forward. I listed seventeen footnotes in my previous article. The footnotes substantiated the reasons I provided for the election forecast I gave months ago. The following is a sample of the facts I have provided this year well before the midterm election(s).
a) I said unemployment was higher for recent college graduates than the national average for unemployment.
b) I said small business bankruptcies were up 67%
c) I said inflation was higher now than when President Trump took office.
d) I said US citizens were arrested and even deported as a result of improper vetting by ICE.
e) In almost all cases tariffs are paid for by US consumers and our Constitution is clear about who has the authority in general to administer tariffs.
f) Man is attempting to have godlike power over all humanity.
I could go on and on, but I do not have enough time. I am busy attempting to get President Trump and Democrats to admit we do not know if people are who they say they are and to verify citizenship before issuing drivers’ licenses. BTW – a person does not need to be a United States citizen to acquire a drivers’ license. I asked the leading identity expert at the time to testify before an Oklahoma Working Group hearing. Some of you were at the hearing. The expert testified what needed to be done to establish identity and citizenship. I worked with the expert on a solution for a long time to create a solution that protected the rights of citizens and increased voter integrity. The solution did not require anyone's Personal Identifiable Information including biometrics to be shared. I have in my possession what the expert said. Moreover, I asked the most conservative state senator in another state to ask the expert further questions. I asked the expert to answer those questions and he did. I have those questions and the answers.
Did I warn President Trump's team and Republican Senate Leadership?
The SAVE America Act had too many flaws and what is worse is DHS was aware of the flaws. The Justice Department was also aware of the problems. I spoke with one of President Trump's ambassadors. I sent one of President Trump's cabinet members an email to his personal email address that I had been given. I spoke with and emailed one of President Trump's biggest bundlers of campaign donations. I also spoke with a large Trump donor. The problem was people were afraid to tell President Trump there was a way to improve voting integrity that actually worked. They were worried about how President Trump would react when he found out some of his people knew the solution during his first term! That is how long I have been attempting to enact the solution to verifying identity and citizenship. President Trump has good instincts in many cases. The problem was and will continue to be a few people who will influence President Trump. Senator Thune's people would not budge when I spoke with them and even emailed them with evidence that I had the solution. My words fell on deaf ears with Democrats.
What I did forecast months ago for the midterm election(s) and the Constitutional Alliance published
There are many false prophets - I am not a prophet, but I am a Watchman
"We have factored in Michigan electing senatorial candidate Republican Mike Rogers, but we think Democrats will win in N. Carolina. Kentucky, New Hampshire, Iowa, Maine, and Ohio. Texas, and Alaska are also looking fair to good for Democrats. Bottom line is we think the Democrats have a better chance of taking the Senate than the polls or pundits suggest. If Democrats do win in Michigan, it is game over for the Republicans. We believe the Democrats will have a 25 seat plus majority in the House after the midterm elections."
AND
"In our discussions with many people who live predominately in red states, we are hearing from the people in these states that they expect Democrats to pick up seats in their respective legislatures. There are a couple of states that will elect Democratic governors that currently have Republican governors. Currently, there are two more Republicans than Democratic governors. We expect that there will be more Democratic governors than Republican governors after the midterm elections."
What is next for our country?
There will be a January surprise that many people will be dumbfounded by.
There will be an event that will shake the core of our country which will occur between now and June of 2027. I will discuss these events in my first communication of 2027. People said there was no way I would stick to what I said during the summer about me only sending out two more emails this year. This is the second communication. Absent a national emergency there will not be another communication this year.
Questions for Pro-Life people
How can a person who is pro-life support an administration that kills people in boats without evidence to support the allegation that all the people we killed were drug smugglers? To make the situation worse, our military were told if any people survived the original strikes, make a second round of attacks and kill the survivors. Our government in our name killed over 120 Iranian school children in the first days of the war and did not accept responsibility. Our intelligence was faulty. Our government saying for months we would investigate is not acceptable when Secretary Hegseth knew it was one of our Tomahawk missiles. Secretary Hegseth should have told President Trump the truth about the war from Day 1.
We told the Iranian people to go out and protest. We told them we had their backs. Tens of thousands took to the streets and were slaughtered. We did nothing to stop the killings. Is that pro-life?
Whatever happened to the full release of the Epstein files? Why was Ghislaine Maxwell moved to a minimum-security facility in Texas and given privileges such as the use of a cell phone? Why were other prisoners at the same facility put on lock down when Maxwell had visitors? I thought Evangelicals protected children, not their abusers. Can anyone explain or justify the killing of US citizens or deporting US citizens to other countries in the name of immigration enforcement?
People died because of the haphazard way Elon Musk took a chainsaw to the federal government. How is that pro-life? I wrote an article in the past about intellectual honesty and spiritual integrity. I expect that of myself and others. I expect people to defend what they believe.
The midterm elections were not about the Right versus the Left: The midterm elections were about right versus wrong. Secretary Hegseth needs to go. He ignored the promotion recommendations of our most senior officers - Admirals and Generals. Hegseth lied to Trump about our military readiness. Hegseth's wife has made out very well financially considering nobody elected her or appointed her with the consent of the Senate.
Let's take a minute to review some facts
'Registrations are up 2.2% from the last major general election in November 2024, and up 2% from primary elections in March, according to a Friday release from the Texas Secretary of State. The latest figures are also 7.7% higher than the last midterm elections in November 2022.' The article was published by a Texas newspaper two weeks or more before the election. Higher turnout on election day was also expected and did in fact happen.
Also, Abbott attempted to convince people that he was opposed to new AI datacenters. Nobody bought what he was selling. People, including many Republicans were very upset over plans to build an AI datacenter in the Big Bend area.
Abbott also failed to gather support with Latinos and Blacks after multiple ICE incidents in and around the Houston area.
There was also the Uvalde school shooting where nobody accepted responsibility.
State law enforcement was on the scene and did not act.
Additionally, when President Trump endorsed Paxton, it was all over. Paxton had been impeached by the Texas House.
Many people have forgotten that countless numbers of Texans, many of which were Latinos and Blacks were left to defend for themselves during natural disasters over the last couple of years. There was also a time when the Texas energy grid went down. Unlike other states, Texas has their own grid.
A small part of what happened in Michigan was due to the idiocy of Ramaswamy's ad about the Democratic candidate for Governor in the neighboring state of Ohio. Also, there are 400,000 Muslims in Michigan. There was not unanimity among the 100,000 Jewish voters. Many objected to Trump and Netanyahu. In the Israeli election more people returned to Israel from the United States to vote than ever before. Overwhelming they voted against Netanyahu's party.
None of what occurred was about a right vs left election. It was about a right vs wrong election.
I understand people questioning the numbers. I was wanting answers myself going back to August when I did forecast exactly what happened. I spoke with people all across the country. Almost every person was angered by the cost-of-living including the price of gas. Trump did nothing to ingratiate himself with veterans. Hegseth has no business being the Secretary of Defense/War. As I wrote in August, it would only be a matter of time before the Aircraft Carrier Abraham Lincoln returned to the United States.
To make matters worse with Veterans, the top people who published the Stars and Stripes all were fired or resigned because of editorial interference from Hegseth. Never before had the Stars and Stripes been censored.
We cannot avoid recognizing President Trump's trade war with Canada. Trump expects an equal amount of trade with a country about 1/8 our size. I wrote in August the war with Canada would hurt Republicans in states that border Canada.
I am not opposed to believing there was some fraudulent voting, but I gave the Trump administration the solution. President Trump's advisors were cowards and did not want to tell Trump I had given them a solution to make sure people are who they say they are back in President Trump's first administration. Some of President Trump's advisors worried President Trump would be angry at them. Instead, they led President Trump to believe the SAVE America Act answered voting integrity issues. The fact is millions of lawful voters would not have been identified as US citizens. This is especially true of naturalized citizens and women who had multiple name changes. The problem with the SAVE querying system is it is a merging of many databases and if there are differences between information going into the querying system about an individual, the system would send back an alert saying citizenship could not be confirmed.
I also cannot explain why President Trump wanted DHS to be able to seize ballots after the election. There are many redundancies built into each state election system. Texas has Republicans in charge of the AG office and the Secretary of State Office. Of course, now that will change in January. My point is if the numbers were altered Republicans have the opportunity to challenge the results. They may, but they will not win.
In Kansas, the Democrats had better candidates. In North Carolina a former Governor with very high approval numbers won the open Senate seat. You can go state by state and understand how Republicans got hammered.
President Trump focusing on the Ballroom, the Arch, the D.C. golf course, the helipad, the reflection pool and other cosmetic changes like renaming the Kennedy Center did not help. Calling affordability, a hoax did not help. Vice President Vance did not help by attempting to distance himself from President Trump before the election. The fact is President Trump had some good ideas, but some of his advisors failed him.
Also, the name calling of women does not help when women account for over 50% of the vote. Firing Chief of Staff Wiles will not help. Going after Congressman Massie was not a good move.
Conclusion - read below to understand why those who say the Democrats could not have possibly won as big as they did, were wrong!
WHY DEMS WON EVERYWHERE: RIGHT WING and LEFT WING ANALYSIS BELOW all say about the same reasons. They are the reasons I listed months ago. People say other people can find what they want in numbers, however in this case right leaning media and left leaning media both agreed on the reasons for a total wipeout.
As I always want to do, I provide the articles/links to assure an unbiased analysis. I will continue to read and analyze. I also searched numerous articles and other sources for VP Vance’s analysis and President Trump’s analysis. We must be able to defend what we believe!
I have five email accounts. I intentionally do so because each account’s incoming email provides a different perspective. I do this in an attempt to acquire a complete view.
Scripture is clear about how we are to inform ourselves before speaking out. It is good we ask questions of one another, but we must not base what we say on probabilities.
God deals in facts, not probabilities: Many people say the probability of the Democrats winning so big was a trillion to one.
I tell people the bible tells us the earth is round. The bible speaks to good hygiene. The bible talks about gravity. I could go on for hours, but I believe I made my point.
One quick point to give a broad analysis of what took place in Texas
Gen Z voters
Beto was never ahead in the polls
70% for Dems 28 Rep% 33% change
Key Voter Groups Shift Toward Democrats in 2026 Midterms | AllSides
In 2024, young voters were nearly split between Trump (47%) and former Vice President Kamala Harris (51%).
The Post Millennial (Right) cited a poll that found young white men shifted 25 points toward Democrats. Trump won the same demographic by 28 points in 2024.
"In other words, in just two years, the Republicans have completely alienated one of the major demographics that their policies were supposed to help." He described the loss as "a stunning failure" and it "illustrates [a] deeper problem" that "Republicans still won't speak to white men, or acknowledge them as a group, except to cast them as the villains."
Voter poll: Here's how some key demographic groups voted : NPR
In 2024, President Trump won a record share of Latino votes for a Republican presidential candidate. But they took a sharp left turn in this election after Trump's promises of lower prices never came to fruition and his administration's harsh deportation tactics backfired.
Latinos swung 21 points toward Democratic House candidates, compared to two years ago.
Asian Americans also sharply diverged from 2024, also going 21 points more in Democrats' favor, from a 22-point advantage to a whopping 43.
Democrats even tied with white voters. To put that in perspective, Democrats haven't won white voters in a presidential election since 1964. Since then, they came closest in 1992 and 1996 when former President Bill Clinton lost them by 2 points both times and then in the 2006 midterms when Republicans won them by just 4.
“Women were the fuel for Democrats' wins in these elections. They broke by 19 points for Democrats, 13 points wider than in 2024 and the best mark for the party since Trump's first midterm.
But the shift with men was notable. Democrats won men by 2 points, a 16-point shift from 2024 and the first time the party has won men since 2008. It's only the third time in 34 years that Democrats have won men.
The other time was in 1992 when Bill Clinton won them by 3 points, and that was with a third-party candidate in the race, Ross Perot, who won 19% of the national popular vote.”
Gen Z Goes Blue: How Young Voters Moved Toward Democrats in the 2026 Midterms | Times Now
Voters under 30 backed Democratic House candidates 66% to 31% in Tuesday’s midterms, a 35-point lead, according to early data from Tufts University’s CIRCLE. That is up from a 14-point gap in 2024, raising questions about Republican support among young Americans.
How Democrats won big, and why 2028 remains an open question | Brookings
Key factors behind the blue wave
Turnout
Turnout in midterm elections is always lower than in presidential contests, but the party that wins the midterms enjoys the smallest falloff from the previous presidential election. Throughout 2026, Democrats enjoyed a substantial lead in polls measuring the likelihood of voting, and the actual votes reflected this edge. As election season progressed, expectations increased that turnout would be high. As of the end of October, early voting totals had surpassed the totals seen in 2018 and 2022. The all-time highs for the 21st century midterms were 2018 (53.4%), when Democrats took over the House of Representatives, and 2022 (52.2%) when Republicans took over the House.
Although national turnout numbers are not yet available, the results from three large red states are suggestive. Compared to the 2024 presidential election, votes cast for Texas Republican Gov. Greg Abbott fell 30% from President Trump’s total while his challenger, Democrat Gina Hinojosa, exceeded Kamala Harris’ vote by 8%.1 Republican Byron Donalds fell short of Trump’s total by 32%, while Democrat David Jolly finished 14% behind Harris. And in Ohio, Democrat Amy Action received 5% fewer votes than Harris while Vivek Ramaswamy’s total fell short of Trump’s by 36%. Meanwhile, only 6% of Republicans crossed over to support Democrats in races for the House of Representatives. Discontented Republicans didn’t abandon their party in 2026; they stayed home, opening the door for highly motivated Democrats to score massive gains.
Demography and geography
In 2024, Donald Trump scored historic gains among Hispanics, Black voters (especially men), independents, and young adults, leading commentators to speculate about a pro-Republican realignment into a multiethnic working-class party. The midterm results will likely end this conversation. In 2024, President Trump received 48% of the Hispanic vote (up from 36% in 2020), 15% of the Black vote (up from 8%), 48% of Independents (up from 43%), and 39% of young adults (up from 35%). In this year’s national vote for the House, by contrast, Republican candidates received only 29% of the Hispanic vote, 8% of the Black vote, 38% of Independents, and 28% of young adults.
The substantial decrease in the Black vote for Republicans is attributable to two big changes that affected these voters. The first was the Supreme Court’s Callais decision which significantly weakened the Voting Rights Act, and the second, related to the first, was the Republican-led mid-decade redistricting which wiped out many formerly majority-minority districts represented by African Americans. Politico predicted this would lead to increased turnout and named it “blacklash.”
There were also signs of erosion in the heart of the Republican base—white voters without college degrees. In 2024, Trump received 64% of their vote. This year, Republicans garnered only 60%.
The shifts in Latino voting had a substantial impact on key House and Senate races. Talarico’s historic win in Texas was fueled by predominantly Hispanic counties in South Texas. Nationwide, in the House districts with the heaviest concentration of Hispanic voters, Democrats won 30 seats, for a net gain of 12, with the results still incomplete in two contests.2 Democrats also scored gains in rural areas. Of the 20 swing rural House districts, Democrats have netted a gain of at least seven seats, with one still too close to call. 3
GOP post-midterm divide: Did MAGA fail or did Republicans? – Deseret News
Did MAGA fail or did Republicans fail MAGA? The GOP’s post-midterm divide
- The Republican Party suffered historic losses on Tuesday across the country.
- Sen. John Curtis accused GOP of abandoning conservative principles to win.
- Dignity Index creator Tim Shriver says voters rethinking Trump's divisive style.
Voters flung the Republican Party into the wilderness on Tuesday.
Conservative strongholds fell in statewide upsets that reset the swing-state map.
Democrats secured some congressional seats for the first time in 25, 50 or 100 years.
It did not take long for the shocking losses to erupt into a barrage of blame-trading.
President Donald Trump lamented that he was not on the ballot himself to blast the GOP ticket to victory.
Romney blames GOP midterm losses on ‘bad policy, bad character’
Mitt Romney, the party’s 2012 nominee for president, hoped that the defeat would provoke a course correction.
Up-and-coming operatives opined that the administration did not go far enough to make “America First” function.
Others called for excising the “Make America Great Again” populism Trump pioneered from the party entirely.
But the consensus was that — similar to the Republican walloping of 2006 — an era of politics had come to an end.
What comes next is as fragmented as the coalition Trump formed in 2024, only to see it unravel in historic fashion this week.
U.S. Sen. John Curtis published a brief blog post on election night, accusing his own party of abandoning traditional conservative principles to win elections.
After a decade of this behavior bore bitter fruit, it will take a return to Republican roots to win voters back, according to Curtis.
In an interview with the Deseret News, Curtis outlined where the GOP went wrong and where he thinks it must go next to rebuild its reputation among voters.
To start, it must recognize its mistakes.
While Curtis welcomes the working-class realignment under Trump, he thinks Trump’s populist promises are fundamentally at odds with a conservative agenda.
“The concept of just giving people what they want — just give them the short-term dose of what feels good rather than what’s really the long-term good for the country and for them; this concept that government should just be providing everything for everybody — is not conservative at all,” he said.
Americans were right to feel frustrated with President Joe Biden over an open border, inflation and brazen stimulus spending, Curtis said.
But Republicans apparently misread these concerns as a mandate for indiscriminate deportations, disruptive tariffs and foreign intervention.
“Democrats didn’t win,” Curtis said. “Republicans lost because we didn’t learn the lessons from 2 years ago.”
Trump’s second stint in the White House almost feels like the opposite of “Trump one,” Curtis said. He does not fault those surrounding Trump. Rather, Curtis thinks the approach is a miscalculation by the president.
In response to the claims that Trump simply needed to deport more, tariff harder and retreat further from the global stage to maintain conservative momentum, Curtis is blunt: “I’m calling BS on that.”
Why Republicans lost the 2026 midterms and what it means for the 2028 election | Fox News
1. Conservatives need an exciting vision for the future.
JASON CHAFFETZ: FIVE TIMELESS POLITICAL LESSONS THAT GOT LOST IN 2026
The first and perhaps most important problem is that Republicans have failed to offer Americans an exciting, ambitious vision for the future.
Whatever you think about socialists and their radical proposals, there’s no denying that they have a grand vision for transforming society. They promise to fundamentally remake the economy, restructure major institutions and create an entirely different kind of America.
THE NUMBERS DON’T LIE. YOUNG AMERICANS ARE FALLING IN LOVE … WITH SOCIALISM
Where is the conservative alternative?
Ask the average Republican politician what America would look like if conservatives achieved all their political goals and you’ll probably hear something about lowering taxes and securing the border.
Those are certainly important objectives, but they hardly constitute the kind of sweeping, transformative vision that can inspire millions of Americans, especially younger voters.
MORE AMERICANS THAN EVER NOW HAVE A POSITIVE VIEW OF SOCIALISM, NEW POLL SAYS
Conservatives desperately need their own version of a political utopia, a radical vision of a better future that goes far beyond simply opposing whatever new proposal Democrats introduce.
Imagine an America in which small businesses and families, rather than politically connected corporations, are the primary beneficiaries of tax and regulatory policy.
Imagine a country where taxes are low and flat, where federal spending has been dramatically reduced, where innovation and entrepreneurship flourish, and where ordinary Americans have far greater control over their economic futures.
AMERICA SAW THE BLUE WAVE COMING — BUT DRASTICALLY UNDERESTIMATED THE EXTENT OF THE DEM TSUNAMI
Perhaps most importantly, imagine a society in which the federal government has relinquished enormous amounts of power to state and local governments, allowing Americans with vastly different political and cultural values to live in communities that reflect their own priorities.
Such a transformation would allow Americans to pursue dramatically different visions of the good life without constantly fighting over which ideology should control the federal government.
DOUG SCHOEN: THE BIGGEST WINNER AND THE BIGGEST LOSER IN THE 2026 MIDTERMS
This is the kind of ambitious, exciting vision that conservatism should be advancing. Unfortunately, far too many Republican politicians seem more interested in tinkering around the edges of an increasingly dysfunctional federal government than fundamentally transforming it.
2. The affordability crisis has not been solved.
The second major problem is that Republicans failed to solve the affordability crisis that helped propel President Donald Trump back into the White House in 2024.
Conservatives desperately need their own version of a political utopia, a radical vision of a better future that goes far beyond simply opposing whatever new proposal Democrats introduce.
For millions of Americans, the most important political issue has been the rising cost of housing, food, energy and other necessities. Prices skyrocketed during the Biden administration, leaving families struggling to maintain their standard of living.
BILLIONS SPENT BY KEY FEDERAL AGENCY HASN'T MADE AMERICAN DREAM OF HOMEOWNERSHIP ANY EASIER: REPORT
Trump and Republicans promised to fix these problems, and although they have made some progress, the affordability crisis remains largely unresolved.
Consider housing.
According to the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s seasonally adjusted Purchase-Only House Price Index, home prices increased 54% between January 2020 and December 2024.
From January 2025 through August 2026, the most recent month for which data are available, home prices increased another 2.8%.
That’s a significant improvement over the previous administration, but it’s a far cry from returning prices to their pre-pandemic levels.
The Best And Worst Explanations For Republicans' Midterm Losses
As was mostly expected, the Republican Party had a terrible, horrible, no-good, very bad night on Tuesday. Democrats took control of the U.S. House and Senate, winning seats in the latter from states like Iowa, South Carolina, and Kansas that President Donald Trump won by double digits two years prior.
Predicting a bad night for the GOP — even if not quite that bad of a night — narrative-setters were already rushing to assign blame for the results before Election Day votes were cast. On and after Tuesday night, the blame game continued. Republicans in Congress and campaign consultants are eager to deflect blame from themselves for their personal losses, for obvious reasons. Trump haters in the media and in both major political parties are equally eager to use Tuesday night’s results to attack their enemy in chief.
The big result to watch for now is what lesson Trump and the Republican Party will take from Tuesday night’s trouncing. Plenty of people are urging them to take exactly the wrong lessons — and resulting course corrections — from their midterm setback. Whether they can recover depends on them taking the right ones to heart instead.
Good Explanation: Historical Trends
Historical trends alone aren’t enough to explain the wipeout that extended to states like Texas, Iowa, Kansas, and perhaps even Mississippi. But they do provide helpful context and a baseline from which to evaluate Tuesday’s results.
It’s conventional wisdom that the president’s party loses seats in a midterm election. In every midterm election since 1938 except two, the president’s party has lost seats in the U.S. House (the two exceptions are the 1998 and 2002 midterms, under Presidents Bill Clinton and George W. Bush). Not always, but more often than not, the ruling party also loses seats in the Senate.
The pattern applies further when one party enters the midterms with a trifecta — control of the White House as well as both houses of Congress — as Republicans had entering Tuesday’s elections. When Republicans had a trifecta in 2018 under Trump, they lost the House. When they had a trifecta in 2006 under Bush, they lost House and Senate. Democrats entered the 2022 midterms with a trifecta under Joe Biden and lost the House, as they did in 2010 under Barack Obama.
Bad Explanation: Deportations
The media and other Democrats want very badly to convince the White House that delivering on Trump’s 2024 campaign promise to enforce immigration laws is now costing his party.
“Backlash to Immigration Crackdown Creates a Challenge for Republicans,” The New York Times decreed on Monday, setting up the narrative before the polls even opened on Election Day. By deporting aliens who are illegally present in the United States, many of whom have committed violent crimes, Trump is turning voters away, the argument goes. (To testify that “Republicans are really out of step” on immigration, the Times turned to a Democrat member of the Senate.)
But that narrative is hard to square with the fact that voters gave Trump a clear mandate in 2024 in favor of deportations. The Biden border crisis, by which Democrats welcomed millions of illegal aliens to break immigration laws and flood into American cities, was consistently ranked one of voters’ top concerns in polls leading up to Trump’s victory. In June 2024, a CBS poll found more than 6 in 10 registered voters supported the idea of deporting all aliens “living in the U.S. illegally.”
In polling just days before Tuesday, NBC News found voters favored Republicans on the issue of immigration by double digits. In exit polling, the outlet found that voters still leaned toward Republicans over Democrats on the question of which party was “better able to handle immigration,” although the number was closer (44 percent to 41 percent). Among voters who said immigration enforcement policies were a “crucial or major” factor in their vote, the majority went Republican.
For every swing voter the corporate press can dig up who claims to be turned off by Trump’s deportations, there is almost certainly a young Republican voter who is demoralized that deportations aren’t happening faster. To back down on fulfilling the deportation mandate voters gave Trump in 2024 would be exactly the wrong lesson to take from the midterms, especially because so many of Americans’ affordability concerns are negatively affected by mass immigration — and because every illegal alien Trump doesn’t deport is a future Democrat voter waiting to be granted amnesty. If you want to know how immigration policy does shape elections, look at the demographic changes in Texas in recent years before its blue flip on Tuesday.
Better Explanation: Senate GOP Leadership Failures
Republicans who ran the party before Trump became its leader have long been eager for an opportunity to wrest back control. They ran to Politico in the days leading up to Tuesday to proactively — and anonymously — attack Trump for their own losses.
Unfortunately for the GOP, fighting Trump is about all that Senate leadership has done over the past two years. It’s no surprise voters punished them Tuesday for doing more to undermine their own party than they did to govern with their two-year trifecta.
The GOP held majorities in both the House and Senate for the first two years of this Trump term, but accomplished little. Trump and other election integrity advocates urged Senate leadership to pass the popular SAVE America Act, which would require proof of citizenship to register to vote, and explained how it could even be passed by the slim GOP majority without ditching the filibuster. So opposed were longstanding Republicans senators to the SAVE Act that when Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton offered to drop his challenge to Sen. John Cornyn in exchange for its passage, he was met with a shrug.
Senate Republicans made confirmation of Trump’s cabinet appointees difficult, from Secretary of War Pete Hegseth to Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard to Attorney General Todd Blanche. They failed to codify many of the victories the Trump administration achieved through executive power, including his popular actions to secure the border. And despite the fact that everyone knew in January 2025 that the GOP would likely only have two years of a trifecta in which to pass its agenda, the Senate spent fewer hours in session in 2026 than in any other midterm year since 1990.
Worst Explanation: ‘MAGA Impulses’
On Monday, Henry Olsen predicted in The Washington Post that Republicans would lose across the board, something he thought should prompt the party to reconsider its “MAGA impulses” in light of “broader public sentiment.” The folks at Freedom Conservatism had already decided who to blame before Election Day began, declaring on Monday that “we don’t need to wait for the election returns to form a conclusion on the efforts of nationalists, postliberals, and reactionaries to take over America’s conservative movement.”
Republicans lost, the Freedom Conservatives said, because of their “populist ideas” and the “bigots, cranks, and conspiracy theorists” which the “Dissident Right” had embraced. To course correct, they prescribed a return to the principles of “free trade.” David French, who is paid by The New York Times to criticize conservatives while pretending to be one, blamed “MAGA’s cruelty and arrogance.” Mark Levin blamed the midterm losses on “isolationists” who, he said, were insufficiently enthusiastic about starting a war of choice in Iran.
As convenient as this narrative is for those who have wished to retake control of the party since Trump won the nomination in 2016, it discounts a decade of reality. “MAGA impulses” transformed the GOP from the party of big business, globalist trade, and foreign wars to a coalition built on prioritizing the needs of Americans, from the economy to foreign policy to immigration.
There is one prominent area in which the old-guard neocon coalition has succeeded in regaining power from the wing of the party they call “nationalists” and “postliberals,” and that was its successful campaign to drag Trump into a new war in the Middle East. If you think voters want more of that, keep reading…
Best Explanation: Iran War and Resulting Gas Prices
According to NBC exit polling, roughly 3 in 4 voters said the Iran war was a “crucial or major” factor in their vote. Of those voters, nearly two-thirds voted Democrat on Tuesday. Among voters aged 18-29, 71 percent considered the war a “crucial or major” factor in their vote, and more than 80 percent of those young voters went blue.
The decision to enter another Middle Eastern war was felt as a betrayal by many Americans who were drawn to Trump’s 2024 coalition on the promise of “no new wars,” but the most obvious effect of the war on voter enthusiasm appears to be its role in increasing energy prices.
The average consumer price index in U.S. cities rose 3.7 percent in the 12-month period ending in September 2026, largely driven by a more than 20 percent increase in the “energy” index and a more than 74 percent increase in the “fuel oil” category.
JD Vance Blames Iran War For Midterm Loss as Trump Says VP 'Maybe' Won't Run - Newsweek
Vice President JD Vance mentioned four reasons why Republicans suffered stinging defeats in the midterm elections on Tuesday as the party grappled with losing the Senate and House of Representatives to Democrats.
Republicans lost numerous seats that President Donald Trump won by double digits in 2024. Democrats were poised to flip at least seven seats in the Senate and more than 25 in the House, penetrating deep into conservative territory in a stunning defeat for the GOP.
In a post on X on Wednesday morning, Vance wrote that a Republican pollster told him there were four major reasons why Republicans lost by such large margins.
He pointed to four actions that Republicans could have taken to mitigate Republican losses—ending the Iran war, focusing on the cost of living and inflation, putting America first and changing the U.S. relationship with Israel.
“The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night,” Vance wrote. “If you'd like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that's at least honest.”
Vance said he remains "hopeful" about the country.
"To the people who are pissed off and want to say, 'I told you so': you’re right, you did tell us so. Take that energy into electing Republicans who share your worldview. To the people who are just pissed at the results, you should be. Let’s take that anger and get back to the work of saving our country," he wrote.
Trump was asked about Vance’s remarks by reporters on Wednesday.
“I think it's largely true because it drove the gasoline up a little bit, short term, and that’s probably true, but at the same time, if I had to do it again, I'd have to do it again because long term it’s the only answer,” he said. “You can’t let Iran have a nuclear weapon.”
Senator Thom Tillis, a retiring North Carolina Republican, told CNN he believes Vance’s explanation is “oversimplified.”
“That is one of several factors. Do you honestly believe, for example, respectfully, Mr. Vice President, that we saw the departure of Hispanics over the war? Give me a break. It's more complicated than that, and we owe a thoughtful analysis so that we get it right” he said.
Tillis’ seat easily flipped to Democrats. Former Governor Roy Cooper defeated Michael Whatley by 20 points in the state that backed Trump by about 3 points two years earlier.
Donald Trump Jr., the president's eldest son, fully agreed with Vance in a post to X.